Defeat on the 4th November means very different things to the two parties.
For the Republicans:
Defeat could actually be a very good thing
1. A clear break from President Bush and his legacy
- it would be harder for future Republican candidates to be painted as "more Bush"
2. An intellectual revival
- being out of power would give the party the space to rethink what it stands for. In particular, its relationship with neoconservatism would benefit from being rethought.
3. The rise of a new generation
- needed to replace an tired-looking old guard
4. Handover a dodgy economy and two tricky wars . . .
- And there would be the oppotunity to hammer the Democrats as they struggled with them . . .
For the Democrats:
Defeat would be disastrous
1. Massive questions over the political viability of the party
- if you can't win an election when you have a candidate who generates the enthusiasm that Barack Obama does and the opposition has presided over the disasters of the last two terms, you have to wonder how you are ever going to win an election. Add in the worrying fact that since Reagan's win in 1980, Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to have won an election.
2. The burning out of their brightest star
- the nature of Barack Obama's campaign means that he would not be able to return in four years time and generate the same sort of enthusiasm again. He would be lost to the Democrats as a candidate.
3. Undermining of their intellectual agenda
- in terms of its policy proposals, Obama's campaign contains many ideas that the Democrats hold dear. Would defeat force these central tenets to be reconsidered?
4. The prospect of a long time out of power
- at this point things get a little far-fetched but here we go. Imagine McCain wins and enjoys at least a steady term. He then decides to step down and Sarah Palin (who has managed to hang onto her everywoman appeal) runs as his successor and defeats another Kerry/Mondale/Gore-esque candidate (who the people don't connect with).
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